The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic will have a “historical impact” on the global food market, with increasingly tight global supplies, lower-than-expected production and stocks in the US, and massive purchases by China, global corn stocks have fallen to an eight-year low. At the same time, concerns about the drought in South America and Argentina’s suspension of corn export registration supported the rise. International corn prices rose to their highest level since mid-2013. They soared 11.2% in January and 42.3% year-on-year.

Driven by China’s import demand, U.S. corn exports have reached the limit, and there are many risks on the supply side. The impact of the new crown epidemic is not over. The yield potential is restricted by unsatisfactory weather. Global corn supply in 2021 is still full of risks.

First of all, from the perspective of the United States, a major corn exporter, the US Department of Agriculture stated at the annual outlook forum on February 18 that due to the expected impact of high market prices and normal planting weather, the US corn planting area in 2021-22 is expected to increase by 1.2 million acres. , To 92 million mu. Soybean planting area is also expected to increase to 90 million acres, an increase of 6.9 million acres year-on-year. The total acreage of corn and soybeans in the United States will reach a record 182 million acres. It is estimated that the US corn production harvested in 2021-22 will be 15.15 billion cats (384.8 million tons), which is equal to the 2016 record of 15.148 billion cats; soybean production will reach 4.525 billion cats (123.2 million tons), exceeding the previous year in 2018. The record is 4.428 billion po. With the exceptionally strong domestic and foreign demand, by the time the 2022 crop harvest season arrives, this year’s record crop yields will all be exhausted. US corn exports in 2021/22 are expected to reach a record 2.65 billion cats, and soybean exports are close to a record 2.2 billion cats. By the end of August 2022, the US soybean ending stocks are expected to be only 145 million cattails, which is not enough to meet the demand for two weeks. The corn stocks at the end of the period are estimated to be 1.552 billion cats, which is equivalent to the supply required for five and a half weeks.

For my country, which is already in a tight balance between supply and demand, the area of ​​corn planted this year is still relatively clear. The earlier Central Economic Work Conference proposed that in 2021, it is necessary to ensure that the annual grain output is stable at more than 1300 billion jin, stabilize soybeans, and continue to implement the soybean revitalization plan, and strive to stabilize the area above 140 million mu. Increase corn, focusing on expanding the corn area in the Northeast and Huanghuaihai regions. The recent Central No. 1 document mentions improving the subsidy policy for corn and soybean producers. Expand the pilot scope of full cost insurance and income insurance for the three major grain crops of rice, wheat, and corn, and support provinces with conditions to reduce the proportion of county-level subsidies for agricultural insurance premiums for the three major grain crops in major grain-producing counties. Due to the high price of corn in 2020, good planting efficiency, and various policy support, it is expected that the corn planting area will increase this year.

However, according to the forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration, my country’s regional and phased droughts and floods will be heavier than normal in 2021, and the phased floods and droughts in the north and south in the flood season will be more significant, which will have an adverse impact on my country’s grain production. Low temperature and spring waterlogging may occur in the spring in the northeast, central and northern part of the main corn producing areas. It is expected that from March to May this year, precipitation will increase by 10% to 20% in most parts of Northeast China, and continuous rainy weather may occur. Temperatures in Heilongjiang and Jilin are 0.5 to 1°C lower, and localized low temperatures are accompanied by phased low temperatures, which is not good for timely spring planting. In addition, according to the national crop disease and insect forecasting network monitoring and expert consultation analysis, in 2021, major diseases and insect pests of grain crops such as wheat, rice, and corn will be recurring. It is estimated that in 2011 the area of ​​corn “three insects and one disease” occurred 440 million mu times, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year.